An Offer T**** Can’t Refuse

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/an-offer-trump-cant-refuse

Obviously wars are unpredictable. They don’t necessarily end when you want them to. Consider the fact that the October 7th 2023, a shattering defeat for Israel, now from the vantage point of mid-2025 was an unmitigated catastrophe Iran. It set in process a chain of events which shattered the ‘axis of resistance’ which was the wellspring of its regional power and is now stands at the mercy of the US and Israel. You don’t know how wars will play out. But right now, Israel has created the circumstances which allow Donald Trump a risk-free “win” of immense magnitude. That is the issue here. Set aside whether or not doing this is wise. I’m talking about why we’re suddenly here. Why two or three days ago the White House was clear they weren’t getting involved and suddenly it all changed. The evolution here is that the Israelis have created an opportunity Trump simply cannot resist. A big big win with very little risk in the short term. All the force is on one side of the question and nothing is pushing back in the opposite direction. It’s less an evolution of views than simple physics.

Of course, there’s more than the short term. But that’s not how Trump thinks. 

Josh Marshall